AFFORDABLE AND RELIABLE ELECTRICITY – an ERR WHITEPAPER

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Dec 27, 2023

Dec 27, 2023

Dec 27, 2023

Prices

Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 16 cents from $2.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.49/MMBtu yesterday.

Henry Hub futures price: The price of the January 2024 NYMEX contract increased 11.2 cents, from $2.335/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.447/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging January 2024 through December 2024 futures contracts increased slightly to $2.564/MMBtu.

Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, December 13, to Wednesday, December 20). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 88 cents at the SoCal Citygate to an increase of $2.02 at the Algonquin Citygate.

Prices in the Northeast increased this week, driven by a drop in temperatures at the end of the report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose $2.02 from $3.39/MMBtu last Wednesday to $5.41/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 38 cents from $2.14/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.52/MMBtu yesterday. Although average temperatures in the Boston Area increased 2°F this week, they dropped on Tuesday and Wednesday from a high of 54°F on Monday to 37°F yesterday. Weekly average consumption of natural gas in the residential and commercial sectors in the Northeast increased 1.2% (0.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The price at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main natural gas pricing point in the Pacific Northwest, increased this week from a relatively low price of $1.12/MMBtu last week to $2.72/MMBtu yesterday. Electric power sector consumption of natural gas in the Pacific Northwest increased 9.8% (0.1 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Prices in California decreased this week as consumption declined, driven by warmer temperatures. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 55 cents, down from $4.21/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.66/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 88 cents from $4.31/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.43/MMBtu yesterday. In the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, temperatures averaged 62°F this week, an increase of 4°F from last week’s average, resulting in 27 fewer heating degree days (HDD). As a result of the warmer temperatures, consumption of natural gas in the residential and commercial sectors decreased 17.9% (0.5 Bcf/d) in California, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased $2.47 to a weekly average of $13.30/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 84 cents to a weekly average of $10.89/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending December 21, 2022), the prices were $34.420MBtu in East Asia and $34.99/MMBtu at TTF.

Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 9 cents, averaging $6.76/MMBtu for the week ending December 20. Weekly average ethane prices rose 7%, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel rose 3%. The ethane premium to natural gas rose 18% week over week. The ethylene spot price fell 2%, decreasing the ethylene premium to ethane by 6%. The average weekly propane price fell 1%, while the Brent crude oil price rose 6%. The propane discount relative to crude oil increased 15% week over week. Normal butane and isobutane prices both fell 2%, and natural gasoline prices rose 4%.

Supply and Demand

Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.6% (0.7 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.6% (0.6 Bcf/d) to average 105.8 Bcf/d, a weekly average record high, and average net imports from Canada increased by 2.2% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week.

Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 0.1% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.5% (0.1 Bcf/d), and residential and commercial sector consumption increased by 1.1% (0.4 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 2.1% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 14.6 Bcf/d, unchanged from last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals were essentially unchanged week over week, averaging 14.6 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.0% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 2.0% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.3 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.

Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-two LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass; four each from Corpus Christi and Freeport; three from Cameron; two from Cove Point; and one from Calcasieu Pass) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 82 Bcf departed the United States between December 14 and December 20, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Vessels arriving at U.S. ports: One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between December 13 and December 20, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.TopRig CountAccording to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, December 12, the natural gas rig count remained flat at 119 rigs as an increase of 1 rig in the Haynesville was offset by a decrease of 1 rig among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 2 to 501 rigs. The Arkoma Woodford and Eagle Ford each added one rig, the Cana Woodford added three rigs, and two rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The Granite Wash dropped five rigs, the Permian dropped three rigs, and the Williston dropped one rig. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, decreased by 3, and it now stands at 623 rigs.

Storage

Net withdrawals from storage totaled 87 Bcf for the week ending December 15, compared with the five-year (2018–2022) average net withdrawals of 107 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 82 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,577 Bcf, which is 280 Bcf (8%) more than the five-year average and 240 Bcf (7%) more than last year at this time.According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 73 Bcf to 96 Bcf, with a median estimate of 82 Bcf.


Spot pricesSpot prices tableNYMEX pricesNGPL prices

Supply tableDemand tableDaily supply/demand graph

U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (12/14/23 - 12/20/23)

Average daily values (billion cubic feet)

Rigs graph

Rigs table

Storage graph

Stocks table

History table

Temperature table

Average temperature

Deviation from normal

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: HDDs=heating degree days; CDDs=cooling degree days

figure data

Source

Further Readings

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